The nations reaping benefits from Russia’s invasion
Since it began a year ago, the war between Russia and Ukraine has hit economies hard around the world, sending energy and food prices soaring. Still, several nations are actually profiting from the conflict, be it by ramping up exports to Russia, by welcoming moneyed Russian migrants, or by increased demand for fossil fuels and other commodities from the countries shunning the Putin regime.
As we reach the first anniversary of the invasion, read on todiscover the 15 nations that are making a fortune from this devastating conflict. All dollar amounts in US dollars.
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China
The West’s loss has been China’s gain as the People’s Republic continues to ramp up trade with pariah Russia. Last year, bilateral trade between the two countries smashed records. Mushrooming by 34.3%, it surpassed $190 billion (£157bn), with China’s exports to Russia soaring by 17.5%. Shipments of everything from semiconductors to raw materials have surged, with Moscow now hugely reliant on Beijing.
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China
China is also taking full advantage of discounted Russian oil and natural gas – Russian Urals crude oil has been trading at up to $40 (£27) a barrel less than Brent crude, which is the global benchmark.
And now that zero-COVID has ended in China, the volume of trade between the People’s Republic and Russia is set to increase even further.
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India
Likewise, India has been gorging on cut-price Russian oil. The country’s imports of Urals crude have skyrocketed sixteen-fold since the start of the war last February, with an average of 1.6 million barrels a day exported from Russia to India in December.
Incredibly, while Russia supplied less than 2% of India’s oil imports at the start of 2022, it’s now shaping up to be the nation’s number-one supplier.
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India
As well as cheap oil, India is lapping up discounted Russian fertiliser. Overall, bilateral trade between the two countries has soared to an all-time high, climbing from $13.5 billion (£11bn) in 2021 to over $30 billion (£25bn) last year.
And while the relationship remains rather one-sided, with India’s imports from Russia dwarfing its exports to the country, Moscow is looking to acquire at least 500 different products from New Delhi in the near future, including car and aircraft parts.
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Turkey
Turkey has ignited the ire of its fellow NATO members by refusing to impose sanctions on Russia, and trade between the two nations is thriving.
Last year, Russia’s exports to Turkey almost doubled, coming in at $58.85 billion (£49bn). That’s up from $29 billion (£24bn) in 2021, with bargain Urals oil making up a significant proportion. Turkey has also upped its exports to Moscow.
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Turkey
Turkish firms are helping to fill the void left by Western companies and are doing a roaring trade supplying products including machinery and electronics to the warmongering regime.
Moreover, tens of thousands of Russians have relocated to Turkey and have established hundreds of businesses there, bolstering the country’s ailing economy. Many have opted to settle in the resort of Antalya on the country’s southern coast, which The New York Times has dubbed “Moscow on the Med”. This photo shows Antalya’s Kremlin Palace Hotel.
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UAE
Higher prices for fossil fuels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not to mention increased demand from Europe, have been a boon to the oil and natural gas-producing countries of the Middle East. This has fuelled stellar economic growth and enabled the various nations to post bumper budget surpluses.
And on top of the commodities bonanza, the UAE is also benefiting from an influx of super-rich Russians.
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UAE
Dubai, in particular, has become a haven for the mega-wealthy Russians who are keen to dodge Western sanctions. They’re spending lavishly on hotels and luxury goods, and have also been buying up property in their droves, heating up the emirate’s real estate sector.
Residential sales hit a record 86,000 last year, with $56 billion (£46bn) worth of property sold last year. That’s an increase of almost 80% since 2021.
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Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by an impressive 8.7% last year according to initial government estimates. This was driven mainly by the higher oil and natural gas prices, not to mention the heightened demand from Europe precipitated by the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Activity in the nation’s oil and natural gas sector has expanded by more than 15% and the country’s government is now sitting on a budget surplus of $4.3 billion (£4bn).
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Saudi Arabia
Like other Gulf States, Saudi Arabia has been stocking up on cheap Russian oil, which it has been using for its domestic energy needs.
This has freed up crude that would otherwise have been used at home, allowing it to be sold at high prices in Western Europe and elsewhere. The country is also using its war windfall to accelerate its transition away from fossil fuels.
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Qatar
Skyrocketing oil and natural gas revenues are working wonders on Qatar’s economy too.
The Middle Eastern country, which hosted the FIFA World Cup at the end of last year, reported a budget surplus of $8.19 billion (£7bn) in the third quarter.
Qatar is the world’s third most important exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after the US and Australia, and is set to become one of Europe’s key suppliers of the commodity, to the detriment of Russia.
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Qatar
Like Saudi Arabia, Qatar is utilising the increased revenues to facilitate its green transition, and its famed sovereign wealth now has half a trillion dollars to invest.
Qatar is also ploughing money into Europe’s transition from fossil fuels to renewables. For example, its sovereign wealth fund recently pumped $2.4 billion (£2bn) into German energy company RWE to support the firm’s green changeover.
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Kuwait
All in all, the oil-producing nations of the Middle East are expected to bank a windfall of $1.3 trillion (£1tn) over the next four years as a result of the higher prices for oil and natural gas.
Along with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, Kuwait is a leading beneficiary of the Ukraine war, with the nation’s economy growing by more than 8% in 2022.
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Kuwait
Kuwait has been raking it in by scaling up oil exports to Europe, with exports of refined products such as diesel and aviation fuel, as well as crude, all soaring.
Now boasting a huge budget surplus, the nation is in a strong position as it seeks to diversify away from fossil fuels. If oil prices hadn’t shot up as a result of the war in Ukraine, Kuwait would likely have been facing a deficit, impeding its ability to reduce its oil dependence and safeguard its economic future.
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Norway
The majority of European countries are suffering economically as a consequence of the war in Ukraine.
Norway, however, has seen a boom. The major oil and natural gas producer saw its estimated revenues from the commodities rise by 200% last year, ballooning to a record $89.3 billion (£74bn) as prices went sky-high.
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Norway
This has triggered much soul-searching in the Nordic nation about how the windfall should be spent, with mounting calls for the Norwegian government to divert the cash to Ukraine, invest in Europe’s green transition, and buffer developing countries from climate change.
To his credit, Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre recently unveiled a $7.28 billion (£6bn) five-year spending plan to fund weapons for Ukraine and assist the civilian population. The proposal is likely to be approved by Norway’s parliament, where it has strong cross-party support.
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Australia
Australia has been grappling with rampant inflation caused in part by the war in Ukraine.
Be that as it may, the country, which is a major exporter of coal, iron ore, natural gas, and agricultural products, is still managing to reap the benefits of the conflict and Russia’s blacklisting by Europe and other Western countries.
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Australia
Australia is the world’s second-biggest LNG exporter and its natural gas companies have been posting record profits, pocketing almost $40 billion (£33bn) during the 2021-22 fiscal year.
Aussie coal producers are doing even better, with their revenues increasing by 186% over the same time period, resulting in profits of up to $45 billion (£37bn). Of this, around $23 billion (£19bn) is directly attributable to the war in Ukraine. Exports of iron ore and agricultural products have also hit record levels.
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Uzbekistan
As well as Turkey and the UAE, the post-Soviet republics have also seen an influx of Russian professionals, whether they’re escaping the military draft or simply looking to start a new life elsewhere.
Thousands of Russians have descended on Uzbekistan and are channelling big bucks into the economy of the Central Asian nation.
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Uzbekistan
The country’s exports to Russia are surging as well. Bilateral trade between the two countries increased by 23% last year, with Moscow now Uzbekistan’s main trading partner.
Exports to Russia have grown considerably and this, combined with the influx of émigrés, has pumped $14.5 billion (£12bn) into the Uzbek economy, which is now among the fastest growing in Asia.
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Georgia
Georgia has welcomed 300,000 Russians who are fleeing the Kremlin’s call-up of military reservists to fight in Ukraine, according to the country’s main opposition party.
Russians now make up a sizeable 8% of the former Soviet republic’s population, and while the influx has raised security concerns, the Georgian economy is riding high.
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Georgia
The new arrivals, many of whom are affluent tech workers, are driving a consumption-led boom, with the influx of migrants and capital inflows of $2 billion (£1.6bn) turbocharging economic growth, which surpassed 10% last year.
The downside is that the increased demand for housing, education, and so on is pushing up rental costs and other prices, squeezing out native Georgians as a result.
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Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan has also proved to be a sanctuary for Russian draft-dodgers and their families, and though the Central Asian nation is now tightening up its entry requirements, an estimated 146,000 people are staying put.
Ploughing their money and expertise into the nation’s economy, much of the immigration is made up of sought-after professionals, who range from IT experts to doctors and teachers.
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Kazakhstan
Given that it’s a net commodity exporter, Kazakhstan is also benefiting from higher fossil fuel prices, not to mention the restructuring of supply chains away from Russia. In fact, exports have almost doubled.
However, these tailwinds are being tempered by punishing inflation rates, with rising food prices a major challenge for the country’s government going forward.
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Armenia
Mass migration from Russia is having a similar effect on Armenia’s economy, which grew by a whopping 11.6% last year.
Hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens arrived in the country last year, with a large number opting to stay. The émigrés have set up hundreds of companies and are spending lavishly on property and consumer goods. Increased exports to Russia are also boosting the Armenian economy.
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Armenia
As is the case with other post-Soviet states, the country has become a hub for trans-shipments of Western goods that are no longer directly exported to Russia.
By way of example, Armenia’s imports of Apple and Samsung smartphones have gone through the roof, with the additional orders clearly destined for Russia to be sold at a premium.
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Algeria
As Africa’s leading natural gas producer, Algeria has massively increased its exports of the prized commodity to Europe, becoming a key supplier since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Last year, its windfall profits surpassed $50 billion (£42bn), up from $34 billion (£28bn) in 2021. And the country is set to almost double the volume of natural gas it exports from 56 billion to 100 billion cubic metres annually.
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Algeria
In addition to that, European firms are rushing to invest in the North African country’s green transition. For instance, German gas company VNG is teaming up with the Algerian state-owned oil company Sonatrach to build the nation’s first hydrogen plant.
Be that as it may, Algeria is under pressure from the US to cut ties with Russia, on which it relies for weapons. However, the country, which applied to join the BRICS group of emerging economies in November 2022, is reluctant to do so, and is playing a precarious balancing act.
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Indonesia
Like so many other countries around the world, Indonesia has had to contend with above-target rates of inflation due to the war in Ukraine.
However, given that it’s a net energy exporter, the southeast Asian nation has actually profited from the conflict. Coal exports, in particular, are breaking records, despite an export ban at the start of 2022 and disruptions to mining operations caused by heavy rain.
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Indonesia
Overall, exports were up by more than 16% in 2022 and economic growth came in at 5.31%, the highest figure for nine years.
The country has also welcomed émigrés from Russia and Ukraine, who’ve been flocking to the island of Bali in large numbers and are contributing considerably to the local economy.
