(The following is a research report by the Bear Traps Investment Newsletter used by CNBC Pro with permission.)
While Washington pundits continue to predict Donald Trump‘s demise and potentially that of the Republican Party, the reality is that history favors the party out of power when a two-term incumbent president retires. Only once since Harry Truman has the party in power managed to claim a third term when Bush 41 succeeded Reagan.
Trump’s popularity cuts across the traditional demographic splits of the Republican Party as he continues to win pluralities among the core groups: evangelical, very conservative, conservative, libertarian, etc. Thinking about what a Trump victory in November would look like also helps lay down markers to measure his likelihood of winning, as traditional models of partisanship have proven inaccurate in tracking Trump’s rise.
A Trump presidency could affect sharp reversals in U.S. trade and immigration policy. General uncertainty regarding Trump’s policies on bank regulation, health care and taxes would remain as he would likely move past his campaign positions and try to work with leaders in the House and Senate.