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On Wednesday, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) held its highly anticipated Investor Day. Since the event was announced a few months ago, everyone has been waiting to hear about the company’s next generation vehicle platform, as well as other items that will be key for shareholders going forward. Unfortunately, the event turned out to be more hype than anything else, and thus for TSLA stock, it was another “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.
Perhaps the biggest piece of news was that Tesla is indeed going to build another gigafactory, this time in Mexico. There have been rumors of this location for several weeks now, as local politicians have talked about it coming and various meetings with Tesla CEO Elon Musk have been reported. There was no timeline provided for this project, but this factory will be used for the next generation vehicle platform. It will be built just outside Monterrey in Nuevo León, with Tesla’s official rendering seen below.
Tesla Gigafactory Mexico (Investor Day Presentation)
As was expected, Tesla’s future plan is about the transitioning the world to sustainable energy. This came with a large math lesson, which can be seen here if you need to know the exact details. However, the keys involve powering the grid with renewable energy sources, increasing the number of electric vehicles in use, and reducing the extraction of minerals. On the EV side, Tesla believes its next generation vehicle can be produced for 50% less, which then will allow it to become more affordable. Part of the reduction in cost is making the production process much simpler. That reduces the time it will take to build the vehicle, which then can allow for higher production over time.
Investors and consumers had high hopes that Tesla would unveil its $25,000 vehicle at this week’s event. This is a vehicle that Musk has teased for several years now, but it was not shown off here. Management said that this next generation platform will get a proper reveal in the future, but again, there was no timeline provided for when that will be. This more affordable vehicle is expected to be a key part of Tesla’s battle in China against many local brands, so for now the company will be limited to the Model 3 and Y there.
In an article I had published recently, I discussed how previous statements around full self-driving (“FSD”) capabilities and robo-taxis could lead to significant liabilities for Tesla down the road. There were hopes that more concrete information would be delivered Wednesday about the robo-taxi platform and service, but we didn’t get a lot of details outside of how FSD and Autopilot have improved over the years. There also wasn’t a major discussion about FSD Hardware version 4 or whether or not it is in cars yet, so perhaps an official announcement about that will come in the coming weeks or months.
Tesla did use the event to show off its latest Cybertruck prototype and focused on some of its key features. Management reiterated that production will start this year, which will be about three years late. However, there was some disappointment that no official timeline was given, and Tesla didn’t update on the price of the vehicle. Mass production won’t occur until 2024 at the earliest, so investors shouldn’t be banking on a major contribution to overall results in the next couple of quarters.
One of the biggest disappointments for shareholders in the near term was the financial discussion. Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn discussed how the company’s working capital needs bounce around throughout the quarter, and what the cost of this sustainable energy future will cost. As a result, there was no official announcement of a share repurchase plan that would at least offset some of the dilution investors are facing over time. This has been a key part of the bull case in recent months, with some major Tesla fans and investors pushing the company to put its large cash pile to use. For now, however, the plan is to build the business, and then return capital afterwards.
I have listened to many of Tesla’s presentations and quarterly earnings calls, and this one was perhaps the most painful. The main presentation featured at least 10 key parts and was over two and a half hours long, and I counted at least 17 different executives that spoke. There was a lot of discussion about things that have already happened in Tesla, much of which I don’t think needed to be regurgitated. For example, we didn’t need to hear for a few minutes how a Tesla produces less emissions than a Toyota Corolla. The average investor doesn’t need to know every single detail about how Tesla reacted to some event from several years ago or every last technical specification about certain vehicle components.
I mentioned that this event was another example of buy the rumor, sell the news. Tesla shares had more than doubled from their early 2023 lows, partially on the hopes for this week’s event. Unfortunately, the lack of critical details on many fronts left investors with a sour taste. As the chart below shows, selling in the after-hours session started almost immediately once the event started, ended with a loss of 5.66% or nearly $11.50 a share.
Tesla March 1st Trading (CNBC)
In the end, Tesla’s Investor Day was more fluff than anything else. The company is certainly making progress on some of its goals, but investors wanted to hear more specific details about upcoming products, a potential buyback, etc. The presentation was just too long and wordy for the average investor, which may have fueled some of the selling in the after-hours session. Given the lack of key details, it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s more selling in the near term until Tesla opens things up a bit.