The outlook for Coinbase changed little even after it beat analyst expectations in the latest quarter, some Wall Street firms say. While the cryptocurrency exchange topped analyst earnings and revenue estimates in its fourth-quarter earnings released Tuesday, it also posted user numbers that disappointed the Street. Coinbase reported a loss of $2.46 per share on revenue of $629 million. That was better than the loss of $2.55 per share on revenue of $590 million that was expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. Meanwhile, the firm’s user base fell to 8.3 million monthly transacting users (MTUs) in the fourth quarter, down from 8.5 million in the previous quarter and the 8.22 million Street estimate compiled by StreetAccount. Bank of America’s Jason Kupferberg was underwhelmed by the results, saying that there was “nothing thesis-changing in the print” despite the solid results. He maintained an underperform rating with a $35 price target, which suggests 43% downside from Tuesday’s close of $62.07. Coinbase expects adjusted EBITDA “in 2023 to improve no matter what the broader crypto market backdrop does as the company plans to maintain OpEx discipline. Overall, the boost from higher rates to interest income is helping stabilize the top line (albeit representing lower quality revenue) while OpEx controls have helped stem losses,” Kupferberg wrote in a note Tuesday. “That said, we think COIN continues to face meaningful headwinds (regulatory, competitive, lack of revenue diversity) that keep us cautious,” Kupferberg added, maintaining an underperform rating. Barclays’ Benjamin Budish was somewhat more positive on Coinbase. He reiterated an equal weight rating on the stock, but raised his price target to $63 from $57, roughly in line with where the shares closed Tuesday. Budish cited recent layoffs at Coinbase and other cost cuts as positives for the stock, but said investors should monitor the decline in retail engagement for the quarter. “Revenues beat, as lower transaction revenues were more than offset by higher interest income, and the adj. EBITDA beat was helped by lower opex. Looking forward, the company appears to be re-positioning itself to generate adj. EBITDA in all market conditions, vs. a longer-term ‘breakeven’ posture prior,” Budish wrote in a note, also on Tuesday. Coinbase made its public debut on the Nasdaq in 2021 , along with other high-growth stocks that have since tumbled as interest rates have climbed. Coinbase shares cratered 85% in 2022 but have rebounded 75% to start 2023. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
There's 'nothing thesis-changing' about Coinbase despite fourth-quarter beat, some Wall Street firms say